Florida Primary Results and Exit Polls

This thread will be the place for live updates on the Florida Primary’s with analysis on the results and exit polls. The average Real Clear Politics average as of 12:00 PM EST on 1/28/2007 reports that John McCain has a 0.8% lead over Mitt Romney while Hillary Clinton’s lead over Obama is near 19%.

There are some interesting questions that the Florida primary could answer.

1. Will the start of Rudy Giuliani’s campaign also be the end?

2. Will Rudy’s presence and Fred Thompson’s withdrawal hurt McCain enough to allow Mitt Romney to be the winner?

3. Will the endorsement from Governor Crist put McCain over the top?

4. Even though the delegates will not count for the Democrats (unless the Clinton’s have their way), will Obama be able to get enough of a bump from South Carolina to close the gap? If so, this would indicate true momentum for his campaign.

5. Will the exit polls indicate any increase of support from the Hispanic/Latino community for Barack Obama? It is critical for his campaign to gain traction with this community. If he can not, Obama will have no chance of winning the nomination.

*If you happen by this site after a google search, please take a look at our other work. While you may not agree with all of our opinions, I promise that you will not be bored.

***Update*** 9:43 AM EST 1/29 - MDefl

The RCP average still has McCain with a slight, 0.6% lead this morning. Florida is an important state since it is winner take all. Winning by 1 vote is the same as winning by a million. McCain must win to remain viable whereas Romney will still be in good shape with a strong second. As for Rudy, I think Fred Barnes may be the only person in the U.S. who thinks that early and absentee voters will swing the election his way. Somehow, Fred will alter his view between now and 8 PM.

***Update*** 10:22 AM EST 1/29 MBT
Miami Ft. Lauderdale Channel 7 is reporting huge turnout due, in part to Amendmet 1, a bill to lower property taxes in Florida. Gov. Crist, who is in favor of the bill was campaigning heavily in Little Havana yesterday to garner support for the amendment. Teachers, firefighter and police unions have been heavily campaigning against the proposal.

Floridians have not lost sight of the fact that while the Republicans are campaigning hard in the state, the Democrat candidates had to sign a pledge to not campaign in the state and the Clinton and Obama campaigns are frustrated with sitting on their hands while the GOP get all the media coverage. True to form, however, Hillary will visit the state this evening for an expected victory speech. She is careful to say that she is not breaking her no campaign pledge, as she will only be seen publically after the polls close.

The New York Times has reported that over 400,000 Democratic voters turned in early ballots and over 80,000 democratic absentee ballots will be turned in. Clearly there is a lot of interest on the Democratic side, despite the no-show by the candidates.

In other news, there are negotiations to admit the Florida and Michigan delegates anyway at the Democratic convention. No surprises there.

***Update*** 11:00 AM EST 1/29 MDefl

OK, I heard back from my source. In the comment thread, my panhandle statement is apparently not true. It was never a strength for Romney. The reality is that the source believes that McCain’s little puppy dog, Huckabee is actually hurting McCain since that region was strong for McCain. This source also told me that there is a triangle region in central FL (north of route I4) where Romney is very strong. They are doing everything in their power to produce a strong GOTV. The source is cautiously optimistic but not ready to declare victory. The source also warned me that he/she is too busy to provide me with regular updates. That was nice way of telling me to stop calling!

***Update*** 12:40 PM EST 1/29 MDefl

Fox News reports record turnout for the GOP primary. Mel Martinez (Senator) explains that he is not supporting Rudy because Rudy can’t win. Way to stay true to your convictions Senator! He also explains to us that John McCain will be Fidel Castro’s worst nightmare. What does that mean?

***Update*** 1:40 PM EST 1/29 MDefl

It is becoming clear that this is now a battle between Romney’s money, which has created a structural advantage for his campaign, and McCain’s last minute endorsements. There is a last ditch, late effort organized by members of Mel Martinez’s team to GOTV with the Latino voters in Southern FL. They are stressing that McCain will be tougher on Castro than anyone in history. Their is also an appeal for him because of his “sensible” stance on immigration. Obviously, they have to be careful on that issue. They are hoping that the last remaining Rudy voters who have not yet voted will switch to McCain. Meanwhile, there is a steady (although not overwhelming) number of voters at polls in Central FL, which is a Romney stronghold.

The question now is, can McCain drum up enough votes in Southern FL and the panhandle to overcome Romney’s advantage in central FL, particular the triangle region north of Interstate 4? How ironic would it be if McCain’s puppy dog, Mike Huckabee took just enough votes from McCain in the pan handle to hand Romney the victory? This could be an interesting evening.

Real life intrudes here. I will not be available again for approximately 4 hours. I would ask my colleagues to provide updates as necessary.

***Update*** 2:10 PM EST 1/29 MBT

Lieberman has been campaigning for McCain in south Florida’s Jewish and Cuban-American communities. Lieberman is viewed as having done a lot of work on political asylum legislation and is very popular with Cuban-Americans. This could be a big plus for McCain in south Florida.

Campaign spending has been interesting. Romney has run almost 4500 TV ads, Guiliani over 2800 ads, and McCain, just over 450 TV spots.

The race is still so close, nobody is willing to predict the GOP winner, based on exit polling, although financial issues are being cited for voters as an important factor, and those voters are tending to vote for Romney.

Of course, on the Democrat side, Hillary is predicted to win, partly because of the older population and Hispanics, who have been voting heavily for Clinton.

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebilius has just endorsed Obama.

***Update*** 2:45 PM EST 1/29 MDefl

I have a short window here so I will get right to the point. A commentor in this thread is reporting that an exit poll from one southern FL precinct in Naples is showing Romney with a significant lead. Thanks to Jonathan for that tip however it is only one polling place and may not be indicative of what is happening in the entire region. John McCain better hope not anyway. On another note, Rush Limbaugh is absolutely destroying John McCain on the radion today. Basically he is finishing his show with song parodies of John McCain’s McCain/Feingold bill and his pining for main stream press love. Rush really cannot stand McCain. Should McCain somehow prevail and be the nominee, how will he reconcile with the Rush portion of the GOP?

***Update*** 3:15 PM EST 1/29 MBT

All the candidates are racing across Florida trying to garner last minutes votes from undecided voters. Romney apparently has a huge and very effective GOTV apparatus, which is working overtime to get voters to the polls. Guiliani’s folks are struggling and there are rumors that the campaign is planning to fold if they come in 3 or worse. Folks inside the campaign are discussing a muted enthusiasm which has crept in during hte past week.

The exit polls are still showing a tight race.

I will be out for several hours, so I hope some of our other bloggers can hold down the fort for now.